Coffee News Recap, 7 Feb: Arabica futures set for longest run of gains in 45 years, World of Coffee Dubai to begin on 10 February

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

For the first time in its history, the arabica futures market has reached over US $4/lb. This unprecedented high – largely due to supply shortages in Brazil, dwindling global stockpiles, and US President Trump’s tariff threats to Colombia – has sent shockwaves through the coffee industry. The last record high was US $3.39/lb in 1977, following a severe frost in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer.

The 1977 record, adjusted for inflation in 2025, is around US $17.55/lb. Although the current market price is far off this figure, the rebound over the last six years has been remarkable. In 2019, arabica futures were below US $1/lb. Throughout 2024 alone, they increased by more than 70%.

As the term suggests, market volatility is unpredictable and unstable. While it’s likely that futures will keep climbing, they could fall at any point – and by how much is anyone’s guess. Hitting the US $4 mark, however, could cause traders and roasters to panic buy, driving prices up even further.

Many in the industry are reiterating that farmers, who are often at the mercy of low market prices, are benefitting. But the higher costs of fertilisers – a result of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict – and other farming inputs means many may only break even.

Whichever way the market swings, this represents a turning point for the coffee industry. Roasters and traders are now faced with increasingly tough decisions, and the consequences will trickle down to consumers.

Top stories of the week

• Tue, 4 Feb – World of Coffee Dubai 2025 set for 10 to 12 February. The fourth edition of the event will take place at the Dubai World Trade Centre. Featuring exhibitors from 120 countries and new additions like the Dubai Coffee Auction, the event highlights MENA’s growing coffee market, projected to hit US $11.5 billion by 2025. (Dubai, UAE)

• Wed, 5 Feb – Arabica futures set for longest run of gains in 45 years amid supply shortages. Following ongoing supply concerns and record shipments from Brazil, arabica futures reached over US $4/lb – the highest level in the history of the C market. Brazil’s production volumes are expected to fall in the 2025/26 harvest, which could potentially drive prices up higher. (London, UK)

• Thu, 6 Feb – Starbucks reduces number of items per mobile order. The number of items allowed per order will be reduced from 15 to 12, also removing extra milk for Refreshers drinks and the americano-no-water option. The changes are part of CEO Brian Niccol’s streamlining strategy, which also includes testing mobile order sequencing and designated pickup slots. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Fri, 7 Feb – Scooter’s Coffee removes non-dairy surcharge at 800 stores. The Nebraska chain dropped its US 80 cent surcharge for plant milks, joining companies like Starbucks, Dutch Bros, and Panera. Its decision reflects the growing demand for beverage customisation at no additional cost. (Omaha, Nebraska, US)

Industry news

• Mon, 3 Feb – Japan’s % Arabica signs franchise deal for Iraq expansion. The specialty coffee chain will partner with Al-Handal International Group to enter Iraq, opening its first Baghdad store by late 2025. With over 200 global outlets, % Arabica expands its MENA presence, targeting Iraq’s growing coffee market, forecast to exceed 130 outlets by 2029. (Tokyo, Japan)

New launch

• Mon, 3 Feb – Bluewater to debut its Café Station at World of Coffee Dubai. The Café Station uses precision water calibration with its Liquid Rock mineral dosing system to purify water and tailor its composition to different coffees, ensuring consistent extraction and flavour. Local partners NIA and Roasttrip will integrate the Spiritello Lever machine. (Dubai, UAE)

• Tue, 4 Feb – Mokable debuts in North America. Mokable, a micro-ground coffee product, will be launched in Toronto from 3 to16 February 2025. Featured at MICHELIN-starred venues like Lucie and Miku, it blends coffee and cocoa butter for versatile culinary use. (Tokyo, Japan)

• Wed, 5 Feb – Coffee Supreme invests in Sydney specialty roaster Gabriel Coffee. Although both brands will remain independent, Coffee Supreme will transfer its Sydney roasting operations to Gabriel Coffee’s facility in the Chatswood suburb. Gabriel Coffee supplies more than 200 wholesale customers, while Coffee Supreme operates roasteries in Wellington, New Zealand, and Tokyo. (Sydney, Australia)

Milestone

• Mon, 3 Feb – Japan’s Bread, Espresso & opens first US location. The Japanese bakery chain debuted in the US with a Redondo Beach store, offering its signature pastries and breads and Caffe Luxxe coffee. Known for blending Japanese and local flavours, the chain operates 37 outlets in Japan. It joins other East Asian bakery cafés expanding in the US, managed by H.I.S. Americas Inc. (Redondo Beach, California, US)

• Tue, 4 Feb – Coffee Holding Co. reports its third-best yearly performance in its 20-year history. The New York group reported a 15% increase in net sales for fiscal 2024, with gross margins rising from 16% to 20%. Net income reached US $2.25 million, compared to a loss of US $835,576 in 2023. The company navigated inflation, high coffee prices, and rising operational costs while reducing debt and renegotiating its lease. (Staten Island, New York, US)

• Wed, 5 Feb – Chamberlain Coffee opens its first-ever café in Los Angeles. The new shop offers classic coffee drinks, signature mochas, matcha options, pastries, and branded merchandise. Founded in 2019, the brand previously operated as a mail-order business and hosted pop-ups but had no permanent location until now. (Los Angeles, California, US)

• Thu, 6 Feb – Toby’s Estate opens flagship store in Melbourne. The store features a central bar with wood panelling and plum-red accents, offering single origin coffees, blends, and exclusive frozen menu options. Toby’s Estate also operates in the Middle East, Indonesia, and the Philippines. (Melbourne, Australia)

Trade & production

• Thu, 6 Feb – Cecafé and partners launch video course on EU sustainability rules for Brazilian producers. Cecafé, in partnership with the German Coffee Association and the Global Coffee Platform Brazil, has launched a Portuguese-language video course on EU sustainability regulations. Available on Cecafé’s “Produtor Informado” platform, the course helps Brazilian coffee producers understand new requirements and their alignment with local laws. (São Paulo, Brazil)

Research

• Tue, 4 Feb – The UK branded coffee shop market hits over 11,456 outlets. The latest Project Café UK found that the market grew by 5.2% over the last 12 months, with Costa Coffee, Greggs, and Starbucks leading the way. The average price for a 12oz latte is £3.64, with the average coffee shop spend at £6.23. (London, UK)

• Wed, 5 Feb – Square releases 2025 Future of Commerce report. Findings include that UK hospitality leaders plan to invest in AI and automation, boost loyalty programmes, and raise prices amid growing inflation. Retailers also aim to integrate digital and in-store experiences as consumers demand seamless, personalised service. (London, UK)

• Thu, 6 Feb – Coffee Science Foundation and ZHAW partner to advance research on green coffee defects. The Coffee Science Foundation and Zurich University of Applied Sciences have launched a research project to analyse the impact of physical defects in green coffee on sensory attributes and composition. Led by ZHAW’s Coffee Excellence Center, the study aims to provide scientific evidence for updating coffee classification standards. (Irvine, California, US)

• Fri, 7 Feb – The 2024 Specialty Coffee Transaction Guide to be published. The 2024 SCTG uses data from 123 international companies, summarising almost 105,000 contracts covering more than 2 billion lbs of green specialty coffee. Data from the latest guide found that the median price for green specialty coffees rose from US $3.40/lb in 2022/23 to US $3.50/lb in 2023/24. Between 2021/22 and 2023/24, the median FOB price was US $3.48/lb, an increase of 73 cents/lb on the previous three years. Over the three most recent harvest years, coffees grown in Panama and Ecuador had the highest median prices of US $21.34 and US $5.86 respectively. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 3 Feb – Amsterdam Coffee Festival announces the 2025 Roast Masters competitors. Twenty specialty coffee roasters will compete for the title of Roast Master Champion title at the event, taking place from 3 to 5 April 2025. The competitors include Wide Awake Coffee, Cartel Coffee Roasters, April Coffee, Manhattan Coffee Roasters, Mabo Coffee, and Kalve Coffee Roasters. (Amsterdam, the Netherlands)

• Tue, 4 Feb – Booth registration opens for World of Coffee Geneva 2025. This year’s European WoC event is expected to attract over 430 exhibitors and 13,000 attendees. In addition to the Roaster Villages, cuppings, and lectures, the trade show will host the 2025 World Latte Art, Coffee in Good Spirits, Cup Tasters, and Cezve/Ibrik Championships. (Geneva, Switzerland)

• Tue, 4 Feb – Southwest Chocolate & Coffee Fest opens registrations for the Roaster Showdown. The competition, hosted in partnership with Café Imports, challenges 30 professional roasters to roast 10 lbs of green coffee. The panel, including Dylan Siemens, Mark Michaelson, Diego Campos, and David Certain, will judge the submissions, with winners announced live at the fest. Entries must be submitted by 28 March 2025. (Albuquerque, New Mexico, US)

• Wed, 5 Feb – Simonelli Group supports the Coffee Science and Education Summit. The Coffee Science and Education Summit will be held on 6 & 7 February at ZHAW Zurich University in Wädenswil, Switzerland. The event offers workshops, tastings, and discussions on topics from plant science to sensory analysis, uniting roasters, farmers, scientists, and industry leaders. (Zurich, Switzerland)

• Fri, 7 Feb – Hardtank hosts webinar exploring how to develop customised RTD beverages. The online event featured Maciej Duszak, Hardtank’s head of sales & co-owner, Ancis Romanovskis, CEO of Rocket Bean Roastery, and Timur El Ait, founder and managing director of NOOZ, who discussed different sourcing options and distribution channels for RTD coffee. (Opole, Poland)

Here are a few coffee news stories from previous weeks that you might find interesting. Take a look:

• Thu, 30 Jan – Eurest launches new Direct Coffee Roasters programme for workplaces. The initiative, in partnership with Farmer Brothers, offers 11 blends roasted in a LEED Silver facility using renewable energy. The programme supports ethical sourcing and community impact via Project D.I.R.E.C.T and is available in over 75 locations. (London, UK)

• Sat, 1 Feb – Starbucks and worker’s union drop opposing lawsuits. The chain and Starbucks Workers United, representing over 10,000 baristas, have both withdrawn their respective lawsuits after agreeing to a mediator. Talks, which began in April and stalled in December, are set to resume, bringing both parties closer to a fair single-store contract following a five-day strike before the holiday season. (Seattle, Washington, US)

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Want to keep up with current affairs in the coffee industry? Check out last week’s coffee news stories and make sure to read the latest Coffee Intelligence News & Opinion piece about how Trump’s trade wars are driving up coffee prices.